Hey, it’s Marc.

Today we’re going to untangle one of the most exciting crypto consumer apps.

It’s a financially incentivized “truth-finding” tool that predicts the future and opens exciting opportunities for brands.

Why did it grow 100x in volume this year? Will Biden drop out? What’s in it for brands? We’ll find out.

Let’s dive in 🦈

Want to get in front of 50k+ business leaders or accelerate your growth? Work with us here.

Truth Finding

Polymarket, now the world's largest prediction market, has experienced a 100x increase in volume this year and gained popularity among mainstream media.

• Polymarket reached a record monthly trading volume of over $110M, bringing the year's total to over $360M with 30k monthly active users, driven by US Presidential election traffic.

• New wallets visiting Polymarket jumped from 19K to 36K in June with a surge in monthly active traders by 53%. 

• It has secured $70M in funding across two rounds led by Peter Thiel and Vitalik Buterin.

What’s happening: On the day of the U.S. presidential debate, Polymarket saw over $8M in predictions, experiencing a flurry of activity. 2024 presidential election is the most hottest topic on the platform and it will continue until the election in November.

Increased speculation: The debate sparked massive shifts in public sentiment around the general election and Democratic nomination on Polymarket.

Biden's odds of winning the 2024 presidential election plummeted from 34% to 22%, while Trump's skyrocketed to 64%. 

By the number: 

• Polymarket holds over 85% of the market share for election betting globally. 

• The US election monthly trading volume comprised 60% of total volume on Polymarket in June.

How it works: Polymarket allows users to bet on the future outcomes of a huge range of topics like politics, sports, current events and stocks. This allows it to captures real-time sentiment, engages users and provides an unbiased view of significant events.

Zooming in: 

• The mechanism is simple. The user can deposit USDC and take a position on yes or no. If the prediction is true, they win $1 or else get nothing. 

• Polymarket operates on Ethereum Layer 2 network Polygon. As a decentralized platform, Polymarket's data is seen as more transparent and less susceptible to bias than traditional polling/ betting methods.

• It harness data from diverse user-base to provide real-time insights and outcomes. The largest age group of Polymarket website visitors are 25 - 34 year olds, mainly from United States, Canada and Norway.

Mainstream media recognition: The platform's insights have been cited by multiple publications (WSJ, Bloomberg, CoinDesk, etc.) and thought leaders, enhancing its credibility and influence in public discourse.

Why it matters: Polymarket’s ability to capture and reflect real-time sentiment on significant events, particularly political ones, positions it as a critical tool for understanding and forecasting public opinion.

The big picture: Polymarket signals a trend: the public's desire for alternative, crowd-sourced information. Unlike traditional prediction markets limited to institutions, Polymarket allows anyone to participate. It offers broader implications with global participation, reflecting a changing paradigm in information consumption. 

Buy Crypto Using PayPal Balance

Traders across the U.S. and EU can now buy Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and hundreds of cryptocurrencies using their PayPal account, powered by MoonPay.

Will Biden Drop Out?

Following the recent shooting incident at a rally in Pennsylvania, Donald Trump’s odds of winning the 2024 presidential election has reached a new high. 

At least that’s what Polymarket tells us.

What you should know:

• A shooter assassinated Trump at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, but he survived. The incident has boosted media coverage and public sympathy, increasing his election odds.

• The odds of Trump’s victory surged to 70% on Polymarket following the shooting, while it improved to 73.3% on William Hill, a UK-based betting company.

Real-time sentiment analysis: The immediate increase in Trump’s odds on Polymarket highlighted the platform’s ability to capture and reflect rapid changes in public opinion.

Stepping back: On the day of the U.S. presidential debate, the odds of Trump’s victory skyrocketed to 64% on this day. 

By the numbers:

• The prediction market for ‘Who will win the 2024 presidential election’ is the platform's most liquid, with $206.6M in bets placed.

• The number of daily active traders on the platform achieved its highest on July 14, after the attack’s news. 

Punchline: The demand for real-time data and crowdsourced information is growing. While Polymarket has gained popularity with political betting, it could expand into other areas such as sports, entertainment, finance, and technology. 

What’s In It for Brands?

Polymarket's growth and focus on prediction markets could be interesting for consumer brands in several ways:

Subscribe to PRO Subscription to read the rest.